30 Jun 2026
Great Britain is expected to have enough electricity to meet demand this winter, according to an early assessment published by the National Energy System Operator (NESO).
NESO’s initial forecast indicates that the electricity system will remain secure and reliable throughout winter 2026/27, with an expected surplus of 5.5GW between 31 October 2026 and 31 March 2027. This represents an 8.8% margin above expected peak demand and is a stronger position than during the 2022 energy crisis.
The organisation says the early outlook should provide reassurance for households and businesses, although it notes that winter conditions can change. A fuller Winter Outlook will be published later this year.
NESO’s assessment is based on detailed modelling of around 30,000 scenarios across the winter period, testing a range of possible conditions including electricity demand, weather, renewable generation, power station availability and interconnector performance. The modelling is designed to identify where the system is resilient and where more active management may be required.
While the overall outlook is positive, NESO says it will continue to monitor global gas market pressures, European electricity flows, interconnector performance, weather conditions and periods where electricity supply and demand may become more finely balanced, particularly during January.
The organisation also highlights the continued importance of close coordination between the electricity and gas systems. Gas remains an important source of electricity generation during periods of high demand or when renewable output is lower, with NESO working alongside National Gas and European system operators to support secure operation across the wider energy system.
NESO says it has established operational tools to manage tighter periods should they arise, helping to maintain a secure and reliable electricity supply throughout the winter months.
